Ontario PC's in the Lead in First Election Seat Projections
In the wake of the Ontario Conservative leadership contest, four new polls have been published, all of which confirm the basic trend pointing to a majority victory for the PC party.
The data from Ipsos, Leger, Campaign Research and Forum was based upon over 4,300 weighted interviews held between March 11-14, 2018. In the aggregate, the provincial distribution of party support was Conservatives 43%, Liberals 27%, and NDP 25%.
The accompanying map (click image above) indicates the Conservatives have swept most of rural Ontario outside of the north, made serious inroads into suburban ridings around the metropolitan centres, and have even cracked into the city of Toronto where they have been shut out for many years.
LISPOP's overall projection at this time indicates the Conservatives would win about 82 seats, the NDP 22 and the Liberals 20.
This isn't a future prediction, and customarily election races tighten up over time. However for the Conservatives to fall out of majority territory, it would probably require a vote swing away from them of at least 5%.