Most Canadians Side with Wilson-Raybould, Believe Trudeau has Lost Moral Authority to Govern: Ipsos Poll
If an election were held tomorrow, Trudeau would receive only 31 per cent of the decided popular vote — down three points from a couple of weeks ago — while Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer would receive 40 per cent, according to the poll of 1,000 Canadians carried out between March 1 and March 4.
That’s the biggest lead the Conservatives have had since the previous election campaign — and that’s despite the fact that the polling data was obtained before Treasury Board President Jane Philpott resigned from Trudeau’s cabinet on Monday, following in the heels of former attorney general Jody Wilson-Raybould and principal secretary Gerald Butts.
“This is the first time we’ve actually seen the Conservative Party resuscitated and looking like they could potentially form the government,” said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs.
“The Liberals, on the other hand, have been dropping precipitously over the space of the last few weeks. The question is have they hit bottom yet?”
The national approval figures are mirrored in Canada’s largest province, Ontario, where the Conservatives sit at 40 per cent, nine points over the Liberals, who are at 31 per cent.
Crucially, the Tories enjoy a commanding lead in the vote-rich 905 region surrounding Toronto.
“The Conservatives have over a 20-point lead in the 905, which has the most seats that swing back and forth in any election campaign,” said Bricker.
“With that kind of lead, they’re set to sweep the 905. If they sweep the 905, they probably win the election.”
The Trudeau Liberals’ prospects in Quebec also look dim. The Liberals had a 13-point lead over the Conservatives in Canada’s second-most populous province only two weeks ago, but that lead has since been slashed by half.
The Liberals now have the support of 35 per cent of Quebecers, with the Conservatives at 29 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois and NDP well behind at 19 per cent and 14 per cent respectively.